Formulalar maʼlumotnomasi AI Analytics hisobotlarida ishlatiladigan har bir metrika, ball va chegara — bitta sahifada.
Hisobotlarda ishlatiladigan har bir formula bir joyga yigʻilgan. Har bir formula u tegishli boʻlgan hisobot va qoʻllaniladigan kontekst bilan izohlangan. Matematika KaTeX yordamida render qilinadi.
Composite scoring — multiplier mantigʻi
Mustaqil signallarni mustaqil ehtimollar kabi birlashtiradi. Metering Bypass (tugun va flot) tomonidan ishlatiladi.
S composite = 100 ⋅ ( 1 − ∏ i = 1 N ( 1 − p i ) ) S_\text{composite} = 100 \cdot \left(1 - \prod_{i=1}^{N}(1 - p_i)\right) S composite = 100 ⋅ ( 1 − i = 1 ∏ N ( 1 − p i ) ) bu yerda p i ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] p_i \in [0, 1] p i ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] i i i
p i = { 0.00 severity = info 0.10 severity = low 0.30 severity = medium 0.50 severity = high 0.65 severity = high_plus p_i = \begin{cases}
0.00 & \text{severity}=\text{info} \\
0.10 & \text{severity}=\text{low} \\
0.30 & \text{severity}=\text{medium} \\
0.50 & \text{severity}=\text{high} \\
0.65 & \text{severity}=\text{high\_plus}
\end{cases} p i = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.65 severity = info severity = low severity = medium severity = high severity = high_plus Misol. Ikkita high+ patern: S = 100 ⋅ ( 1 − 0.35 2 ) = 87.75 S = 100 \cdot (1 - 0.35^2) = 87.75 S = 100 ⋅ ( 1 − 0.3 5 2 ) = 87.75 yeta olmaydi — 100 ga toʻyinish uchun tasdiqlangan qurilma hodisalari kerak (ularsiz confidence shipi = medium).
Vaznli yigʻindi (weighted-sum) bahosi
Top Problem Nodes (besh oʻlchov):
S composite = ∑ k ∈ K w k ⋅ s k , K = { battery , telem , quality , risk , events } S_\text{composite} = \sum_{k \in K} w_k \cdot s_k, \quad K = \{\text{battery}, \text{telem}, \text{quality}, \text{risk}, \text{events}\} S composite = k ∈ K ∑ w k ⋅ s k , K = { battery , telem , quality , risk , events } Teng vaznlash, har biri w k = 20 % w_k = 20\% w k = 20%
Top Gas Leaks (toʻrt kichik baho, turli vaznlar):
S leak = 0.4 ⋅ s quiet + 0.3 ⋅ s baseline + 0.2 ⋅ s drip + 0.1 ⋅ s drift S_\text{leak} = 0.4 \cdot s_\text{quiet} + 0.3 \cdot s_\text{baseline} + 0.2 \cdot s_\text{drip} + 0.1 \cdot s_\text{drift} S leak = 0.4 ⋅ s quiet + 0.3 ⋅ s baseline + 0.2 ⋅ s drip + 0.1 ⋅ s drift Patern detektorlari — Metering Bypass
Pattern 1 — default bosimda nol oqim (severity = high+, p = 0.65):
trigger = ( Q ˉ ≤ 0.5 m³/h over a window ≥ 6 h ) ∧ ( σ P < 0.1 kPa ) ∧ ( P ∈ D ) \text{trigger} = (\bar Q \leq 0.5\,\text{m³/h over a window} \geq 6\,\text{h}) \land (\sigma_P < 0.1\,\text{kPa}) \land (P \in \mathcal{D}) trigger = ( Q ˉ ≤ 0.5 m³/h over a window ≥ 6 h ) ∧ ( σ P < 0.1 kPa ) ∧ ( P ∈ D ) D = { 100.0 , 101.325 , 103.0 , 105.0 } ± 0.5 ∪ { 0.0 } ± 0.3 \mathcal{D} = \{100.0, 101.325, 103.0, 105.0\}_{\pm 0.5} \cup \{0.0\}_{\pm 0.3} D = { 100.0 , 101.325 , 103.0 , 105.0 } ± 0.5 ∪ { 0.0 } ± 0.3
Pattern 2 — qotgan bosimda nol oqim (severity = medium, p = 0.30). Yopiq gaz hajmi uchun Gey-Lyussak qonunining buzilishi.
trigger = ( Q ˉ ≤ 0.5 m³/h ) ∧ ( Δ T ≥ 1 °C ) ∧ ( σ P < 0.1 kPa ) \text{trigger} = (\bar Q \leq 0.5\,\text{m³/h}) \land (\Delta T \geq 1\text{°C}) \land (\sigma_P < 0.1\,\text{kPa}) trigger = ( Q ˉ ≤ 0.5 m³/h ) ∧ ( Δ T ≥ 1 °C ) ∧ ( σ P < 0.1 kPa ) Gey-Lyussak boʻyicha kutilgan ΔP (izoxorik jarayon):
P 1 T 1 = P 2 T 2 ⟹ Δ P expected = P abs ( 1 ) ⋅ Δ T K T 1 ( K ) \frac{P_1}{T_1} = \frac{P_2}{T_2} \;\Longrightarrow\; \Delta P_\text{expected} = P_\text{abs}^{(1)} \cdot \frac{\Delta T_K}{T_1^{(K)}} T 1 P 1 = T 2 P 2 ⟹ Δ P expected = P abs ( 1 ) ⋅ T 1 ( K ) Δ T K bu yerda:
P abs ( 1 ) = P gauge + 101.325 P_\text{abs}^{(1)} = P_\text{gauge} + 101.325 P abs ( 1 ) = P gauge + 101.325 P gauge < 50 P_\text{gauge} < 50 P gauge < 50 P abs = P kPa P_\text{abs} = P_\text{kPa} P abs = P kPa T ( K ) = T ° C + 273.15 T^{(K)} = T_{°C} + 273.15 T ( K ) = T ° C + 273.15 Δ T K = ∣ T 2 ( K ) − T 1 ( K ) ∣ = ∣ T 2 ° C − T 1 ° C ∣ \Delta T_K = |T_2^{(K)} - T_1^{(K)}| = |T_2^{°C} - T_1^{°C}| Δ T K = ∣ T 2 ( K ) − T 1 ( K ) ∣ = ∣ T 2 ° C − T 1 ° C ∣
«P qotgan» trigger holati:
Δ P expected σ P ≥ 3 \frac{\Delta P_\text{expected}}{\sigma_P} \geq 3 σ P Δ P expected ≥ 3 False-positive himoya — tarmoq tuguni. Gey-Lyussak faqat yopiq hajm uchun amal qiladi. Gaz magistraliga ulangan tugunda gauge bosim regulator tomonidan ushlab turiladi, gaz fizikasi tomonidan emas. Detektor ishga tushishidan oldin:
is_network = ( median ( P gauge ) < 10 kPa ) ∧ ( σ P (window) < 2 kPa ) ∧ ¬ is_p_sensor_broken \text{is\_network} = (\text{median}(P_\text{gauge}) < 10\,\text{kPa}) \land (\sigma_P^\text{(window)} < 2\,\text{kPa}) \land \neg \text{is\_p\_sensor\_broken} is_network = ( median ( P gauge ) < 10 kPa ) ∧ ( σ P (window) < 2 kPa ) ∧ ¬ is_p_sensor_broken Agar tugun tarmoq tuguni boʻlsa, barcha qotgan-bosim hodisalari balldan chiqariladi va axborot kartochkasi qoʻshiladi.
Pattern 3 — nol-oqim runidan keyin tiklanish (severity = high, p = 0.50). Uzoq nol-oqim runidan keyin darhol sinxron Q + P sakrashi:
trigger = ∃ t ∈ [ end run , + 2 h ] : Q ( t ) ≥ 10 ∧ ∣ Δ P ∣ ≥ 20 kPa \text{trigger} = \exists\, t \in [\text{end}_\text{run}, +2\text{h}] : Q(t) \geq 10 \land |\Delta P| \geq 20\,\text{kPa} trigger = ∃ t ∈ [ end run , + 2 h ] : Q ( t ) ≥ 10 ∧ ∣Δ P ∣ ≥ 20 kPa Pattern 4 — toza seanslar bilan boʻshliq (severity = medium, p = 0.30). Qurilma aniq aloqada boʻlgani holda arxivda yoʻqolgan soatlar:
trigger = ( missing_hours ≥ 24 ) ∧ ( successful_sessions_in_gap ≥ 1 ) \text{trigger} = (\text{missing\_hours} \geq 24) \land (\text{successful\_sessions\_in\_gap} \geq 1) trigger = ( missing_hours ≥ 24 ) ∧ ( successful_sessions_in_gap ≥ 1 ) Old filtrlar (false-positive himoyasi)
Signal Chegara Taʼsir P datchigi buzilgan P ≥ 168 soat oynada istalgan paytda qotgan barcha P-asosli detektorlar oʻchiriladi Tarmoqqa ulangan median(P_gauge) < 10 kPa VA σ_P < 2 kPa VA buzilmagan qotgan-bosim paterni balldan chiqariladi Telemetriya spike P > 500 P > 500 P > 500 Q > 20 × median ( Q ) Q > 20 \times \text{median}(Q) Q > 20 × median ( Q ) qator tampering mantigʻidan oldin NULL bilan almashtiriladi
Severity chegarasi, barcha detektorlardan keyin va suspicion-score oldidan qoʻllanadi:
Hodisalar tarkibi Ruxsat etilgan maksimum daraja high+ mavjud very high high mavjud high ikkita yoki undan koʻp medium high roppa-rosa bitta medium medium faqat low yoki yoʻq medium
Coverage va maʼlumotlar sifati — Consumption Analytics
cov = H OK + H NULL H expected , unobs % = ( 1 − cov ) ⋅ 100 % \text{cov} = \frac{H_\text{OK} + H_\text{NULL}}{H_\text{expected}}, \quad
\text{unobs}_\% = (1 - \text{cov}) \cdot 100\% cov = H expected H OK + H NULL , unobs % = ( 1 − cov ) ⋅ 100% Shart Severity tail_h > 168 hcritical unobs_pct > 30%high unobs_pct > 10%medium boshqa hollarda low
Kuzatilmagan hajm bahosi (ikki usul). Oʻrtacha oqim ekstrapolyatsiyasi:
V unobs ( mean ) = Q ˉ OK ⋅ H unobs V^{(\text{mean})}_\text{unobs} = \bar Q_\text{OK} \cdot H_\text{unobs} V unobs ( mean ) = Q ˉ OK ⋅ H unobs Sutkalik profilni qayta tiklash:
V unobs ( profile ) = ∑ h ∈ unobs Q ˉ h V^{(\text{profile})}_\text{unobs} = \sum_{h \in \text{unobs}} \bar Q_h V unobs ( profile ) = h ∈ unobs ∑ Q ˉ h Operatsion idle chegarasi:
∣ { h : Q ( h ) < 0.05 } ∣ H OK > 0.95 ⇒ idle rejim (nol isteʼmol uchun jarima qoʻyilmaydi) \frac{|\{h : Q(h) < 0.05\}|}{H_\text{OK}} > 0.95 \Rightarrow \text{idle rejim (nol isteʼmol uchun jarima qoʻyilmaydi)} H OK ∣ { h : Q ( h ) < 0.05 } ∣ > 0.95 ⇒ idle rejim (nol isteʼmol uchun jarima qoʻyilmaydi) Q/V solishtirish:
Δ V integral = ∑ h Q ( h ) ⋅ 1 h , Δ V counter = V ( t end ) − V ( t start ) \Delta V_\text{integral} = \sum_h Q(h) \cdot 1\text{h}, \quad \Delta V_\text{counter} = V(t_\text{end}) - V(t_\text{start}) Δ V integral = h ∑ Q ( h ) ⋅ 1 h , Δ V counter = V ( t end ) − V ( t start ) Q/V mismatch belgisi qoʻyiladi, agar ∣ Δ V counter − Δ V integral ∣ Δ V counter > 5 % \text{Q/V mismatch belgisi qoʻyiladi, agar } \frac{|\Delta V_\text{counter} - \Delta V_\text{integral}|}{\Delta V_\text{counter}} > 5\% Q/V mismatch belgisi qoʻyiladi, agar Δ V counter ∣Δ V counter − Δ V integral ∣ > 5% 5% bardosh OIML R 137 sinf 1.0 plyus integratsiya yaxlitlash ruxsatiga mos keladi.
Kichik baholar — Top Problem Nodes
Tezkor old-tartiblash (faqat metadata):
S fast = d pts ( days_since_last_session ) + s pts ( status ) S_\text{fast} = d_\text{pts}(\text{days\_since\_last\_session}) + s_\text{pts}(\text{status}) S fast = d pts ( days_since_last_session ) + s pts ( status ) d pts ( d ) = { 100 d ≥ 60 60 + ( d − 30 ) ⋅ 1.33 30 ≤ d < 60 20 + ( d − 7 ) ⋅ 1.74 7 ≤ d < 30 d ⋅ 2.85 d < 7 d_\text{pts}(d) = \begin{cases}
100 & d \geq 60 \\
60 + (d-30) \cdot 1.33 & 30 \leq d < 60 \\
20 + (d-7) \cdot 1.74 & 7 \leq d < 30 \\
d \cdot 2.85 & d < 7
\end{cases} d pts ( d ) = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ 100 60 + ( d − 30 ) ⋅ 1.33 20 + ( d − 7 ) ⋅ 1.74 d ⋅ 2.85 d ≥ 60 30 ≤ d < 60 7 ≤ d < 30 d < 7 s pts = 30 s_\text{pts} = 30 s pts = 30
Batareya kichik bahosi (mV):
v pts = { 100 V last < 3000 80 V last < 3200 50 V last < 3400 25 V last < 3600 0 aks holda v_\text{pts} = \begin{cases}
100 & V_\text{last} < 3000 \\
80 & V_\text{last} < 3200 \\
50 & V_\text{last} < 3400 \\
25 & V_\text{last} < 3600 \\
0 & \text{aks holda}
\end{cases} v pts = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ 100 80 50 25 0 V last < 3000 V last < 3200 V last < 3400 V last < 3600 aks holda S battery = min ( 100 , v pts + d pts ( drop_pct ) ) S_\text{battery} = \min(100, v_\text{pts} + d_\text{pts}(\text{drop\_pct})) S battery = min ( 100 , v pts + d pts ( drop_pct )) bu yerda d pts = 30 d_\text{pts} = 30 d pts = 30
Risk kichik bahosi:
S risk = 1 1.85 ∑ i min ( cap i , α i ⋅ n i ) S_\text{risk} = \frac{1}{1.85} \sum_i \min(\text{cap}_i, \alpha_i \cdot n_i) S risk = 1.85 1 i ∑ min ( cap i , α i ⋅ n i ) Signal n i n_i n i α i \alpha_i α i cap quiet_n_pct0.8 40 n_plateau4 20 n_neg (binar)25 25 n_live_p8 40 n_pt_resets6 30 n_drop_rec5 30
Events kichik bahosi:
Shart S events S_\text{events} S events physical VA substitution 100 faqat physical 80 faqat substitution 60 faqat metrology / system error 30 hodisa yoʻq 0
Batareya chegarasi — Battery Forecast va Fleet Battery Forecast
Manba boʻyicha baho (% yoki mV):
S metro = clip [ 0 , 100 ] ( V − V crit V fresh − V crit ⋅ 100 ) S_\text{metro} = \text{clip}_{[0,100]}\left(\frac{V - V_\text{crit}}{V_\text{fresh} - V_\text{crit}} \cdot 100\right) S metro = clip [ 0 , 100 ] ( V fresh − V crit V − V crit ⋅ 100 ) Shkala V crit V_\text{crit} V crit V fresh V_\text{fresh} V fresh % (metering Li-SOCl₂) 20 90 mV (telemetriya Li-pol) 3300 3600
Composite (eng zaif zveno):
S battery = min ( S metro , S telem ) S_\text{battery} = \min(S_\text{metro}, S_\text{telem}) S battery = min ( S metro , S telem ) T crit T_\text{crit} T crit
T crit ( opt ) = t now + V now − V crit ∣ drop_rate ∣ T_\text{crit}^{(\text{opt})} = t_\text{now} + \frac{V_\text{now} - V_\text{crit}}{|\text{drop\_rate}|} T crit ( opt ) = t now + ∣ drop_rate ∣ V now − V crit T crit ( real ) = T crit ( opt ) ⋅ ( 1 − α accel ) T_\text{crit}^{(\text{real})} = T_\text{crit}^{(\text{opt})} \cdot (1 - \alpha_\text{accel}) T crit ( real ) = T crit ( opt ) ⋅ ( 1 − α accel ) T crit ( pess ) = T crit ( real ) ⋅ 0.5 T_\text{crit}^{(\text{pess})} = T_\text{crit}^{(\text{real})} \cdot 0.5 T crit ( pess ) = T crit ( real ) ⋅ 0.5 Hisobot oynasida almashish hodisasi topilganda barcha chiziqli regressiyalar almashishdan keyingi davr bilan cheklanadi. Aks holda almashishdagi kuchlanish sakrashi (masalan, 3225 → 4197 mV) notoʻgʻri musbat slope beradi — quvvatlanmaydigan Li-pol uchun bu fizik mumkin emas.
slope real = linreg ( { ( t i , v i ) : t i ≥ t replacement } ) \text{slope}_\text{real} = \text{linreg}\big(\{(t_i, v_i) : t_i \geq t_\text{replacement}\}\big) slope real = linreg ( {( t i , v i ) : t i ≥ t replacement } ) Telemetriya bloki almashishi. Batareyasi tsikllanmaydigan telemetriya paketi boʻlgan qurilmalar uchun “razryaddan kritikkacha kun” bashorati qoʻllanmaydi. Almashish qarori uchtadan eng yomoni boʻlgan mustaqil mezon sifatida olinadi.
Taqvim yoshi:
age_status = { ok y age < 0.75 ⋅ y expected plan 0.75 ⋅ y expected ≤ y age < y expected due y age ≥ y expected \text{age\_status} = \begin{cases}
\text{ok} & y_\text{age} < 0.75 \cdot y_\text{expected} \\
\text{plan} & 0.75 \cdot y_\text{expected} \leq y_\text{age} < y_\text{expected} \\
\text{due} & y_\text{age} \geq y_\text{expected}
\end{cases} age_status = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ ok plan due y age < 0.75 ⋅ y expected 0.75 ⋅ y expected ≤ y age < y expected y age ≥ y expected bu yerda y expected = 3 y_\text{expected} = 3 y expected = 3
Paket byudjetiga nisbatan ishlatilgan seanslar:
sessions_status = { ok ratio < 0.75 plan 0.75 ≤ ratio < 1.0 due ratio ≥ 1.0 , ratio = sessions_used 2000 \text{sessions\_status} = \begin{cases}
\text{ok} & \text{ratio} < 0.75 \\
\text{plan} & 0.75 \leq \text{ratio} < 1.0 \\
\text{due} & \text{ratio} \geq 1.0
\end{cases}, \quad \text{ratio} = \frac{\text{sessions\_used}}{2000} sessions_status = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ ok plan due ratio < 0.75 0.75 ≤ ratio < 1.0 ratio ≥ 1.0 , ratio = 2000 sessions_used 2000-seansli byudjet 2000 mAh paketga mos keladi (TX yuk ostida bir seans ≈ 1 mAh).
Yuk ostida degradatsiya (oxirgi 30 kun vs 180–150 kun oldin):
deg_pct = 100 ⋅ min ( V old ) − min ( V recent ) min ( V old ) \text{deg\_pct} = 100 \cdot \frac{\min(V_\text{old}) - \min(V_\text{recent})}{\min(V_\text{old})} deg_pct = 100 ⋅ min ( V old ) min ( V old ) − min ( V recent ) deg_status = { ok deg_pct < 3 % watch 3 % ≤ deg_pct < 8 % degraded deg_pct ≥ 8 % \text{deg\_status} = \begin{cases}
\text{ok} & \text{deg\_pct} < 3\% \\
\text{watch} & 3\% \leq \text{deg\_pct} < 8\% \\
\text{degraded} & \text{deg\_pct} \geq 8\%
\end{cases} deg_status = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ ok watch degraded deg_pct < 3% 3% ≤ deg_pct < 8% deg_pct ≥ 8% Yakuniy verdikt (uchtadan eng yomoni):
overall = { due any of { age, sessions, deg } ∈ { due, degraded } plan else if any ∈ { plan, watch } ok otherwise \text{overall} = \begin{cases}
\text{due} & \text{any of } \{\text{age, sessions, deg}\} \in \{\text{due, degraded}\} \\
\text{plan} & \text{else if any} \in \{\text{plan, watch}\} \\
\text{ok} & \text{otherwise}
\end{cases} overall = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ due plan ok any of { age, sessions, deg } ∈ { due, degraded } else if any ∈ { plan, watch } otherwise Batareya sigʻimi signal / consumption modellari uchun:
Δ V period = V first − V last , Δ C used = Δ V ⋅ C mAh 1200 mV \Delta V_\text{period} = V_\text{first} - V_\text{last}, \quad
\Delta C_\text{used} = \Delta V \cdot \frac{C_\text{mAh}}{1200\text{ mV}} Δ V period = V first − V last , Δ C used = Δ V ⋅ 1200 mV C mAh bu yerda 1200 mV — nominaldan toʻliq razryadgacha boʻlgan Li-pol kuchlanish diapazoni (3.0 → 4.2 V). Anomal tushish aniqlanadi, agar oxirgi 30 kundagi tushish tezligi 90 kunlik baseline’dan ikki marta oshsa.
Sizish aniqlash — Top Gas Leaks
Punktga moslangan chegara:
θ leak = max ( 0.05 , P 95 ( Q ) ⋅ 0.05 ) \theta_\text{leak} = \max(0.05, P_{95}(Q) \cdot 0.05) θ leak = max ( 0.05 , P 95 ( Q ) ⋅ 0.05 ) Har bir punktning oʻz p95-idan 5% — moslashuvchi, shuning uchun tijorat obʼektlari uy xoʻjaliklari bilan bir xil chegarada belgilanmaydi.
Kichik baholar:
s quiet = 100 ⋅ min h ∈ [ 2 , 5 ] Q ( h ) θ leak (100 da kesiladi) s_\text{quiet} = 100 \cdot \frac{\min_{h \in [2,5]} Q(h)}{\theta_\text{leak}} \text{ (100 da kesiladi)} s quiet = 100 ⋅ θ leak min h ∈ [ 2 , 5 ] Q ( h ) (100 da kesiladi) s baseline = 100 ⋅ P 5 ( Q ) θ leak (100 da kesiladi) s_\text{baseline} = 100 \cdot \frac{P_5(Q)}{\theta_\text{leak}} \text{ (100 da kesiladi)} s baseline = 100 ⋅ θ leak P 5 ( Q ) (100 da kesiladi) s drip = 100 ⋅ ∣ { h : 0.5 θ ≤ Q ( h ) ≤ 2 θ } ∣ ∣ H ∣ s_\text{drip} = 100 \cdot \frac{|\{h : 0.5\theta \leq Q(h) \leq 2\theta\}|}{|H|} s drip = 100 ⋅ ∣ H ∣ ∣ { h : 0.5 θ ≤ Q ( h ) ≤ 2 θ } ∣ s drift = 100 ⋅ tanh ( slope ( P 5 ) θ leak / month ) s_\text{drift} = 100 \cdot \tanh\left(\frac{\text{slope}(P_5)}{\theta_\text{leak} / \text{month}}\right) s drift = 100 ⋅ tanh ( θ leak / month slope ( P 5 ) ) CO₂e hisoblari — Decarbonization va Emissions and Energy
Metan → CO₂e:
m CH4 = V leak ⋅ ϕ CH4 ⋅ ρ CH4 , ρ CH4 = 0.68 kg/m³ m_\text{CH4} = V_\text{leak} \cdot \phi_\text{CH4} \cdot \rho_\text{CH4}, \quad \rho_\text{CH4} = 0.68 \text{ kg/m³} m CH4 = V leak ⋅ ϕ CH4 ⋅ ρ CH4 , ρ CH4 = 0.68 kg/m³ m CO2e ( GWP100 ) = m CH4 ⋅ 28 , m CO2e ( GWP20 ) = m CH4 ⋅ 84 m_\text{CO2e}^{(\text{GWP100})} = m_\text{CH4} \cdot 28, \quad m_\text{CO2e}^{(\text{GWP20})} = m_\text{CH4} \cdot 84 m CO2e ( GWP100 ) = m CH4 ⋅ 28 , m CO2e ( GWP20 ) = m CH4 ⋅ 84 GWP koeffitsiyentlari IPCC AR6 boʻyicha (20-yillik koeffitsiyent yaqin muddatli yumshatish maqsadlariga muhim boʻlgan qisqa muddatli isish taʼsirini aks ettiradi).
Toʻgʻridan-toʻgʻri CO₂ (yoqilgan gazdan):
m CO2,direct = V consumed ⋅ EF CO2 , EF CO2 = 1.96 kg/m³ m_\text{CO2,direct} = V_\text{consumed} \cdot \text{EF}_\text{CO2}, \quad \text{EF}_\text{CO2} = 1.96 \text{ kg/m³} m CO2,direct = V consumed ⋅ EF CO2 , EF CO2 = 1.96 kg/m³ Energiya:
E GJ = V ⋅ HHV , HHV = 37.0 MJ/m³ E_\text{GJ} = V \cdot \text{HHV}, \quad \text{HHV} = 37.0 \text{ MJ/m³} E GJ = V ⋅ HHV , HHV = 37.0 MJ/m³ E kWh = E GJ ⋅ 1000 3.6 E_\text{kWh} = E_\text{GJ} \cdot \frac{1000}{3.6} E kWh = E GJ ⋅ 3.6 1000 Investitsiya senariylari — Decarbonization va Automation ROI
CAPEX / OPEX (har tugun uchun):
CAPEX total = N ⋅ capex_per_node , OPEX / year = N ⋅ opex_per_node_per_year \text{CAPEX}_\text{total} = N \cdot \text{capex\_per\_node}, \quad \text{OPEX}/\text{year} = N \cdot \text{opex\_per\_node\_per\_year} CAPEX total = N ⋅ capex_per_node , OPEX / year = N ⋅ opex_per_node_per_year Qiymat / Payback:
Value / year = ∑ hot spots ( gas + carbon GWP100 ) \text{Value}/\text{year} = \sum_\text{hot spots}(\text{gas} + \text{carbon}_\text{GWP100}) Value / year = hot spots ∑ ( gas + carbon GWP100 ) Payback months = { CAPEX Value − OPEX ⋅ 12 Value > OPEX none otherwise \text{Payback}_\text{months} = \begin{cases}
\dfrac{\text{CAPEX}}{\text{Value} - \text{OPEX}} \cdot 12 & \text{Value} > \text{OPEX} \\
\text{none} & \text{otherwise}
\end{cases} Payback months = ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ Value − OPEX CAPEX ⋅ 12 none Value > OPEX otherwise ROI / TCO:
ROI = Value/year − OPEX/year CAPEX total ⋅ 100 % \text{ROI} = \frac{\text{Value/year} - \text{OPEX/year}}{\text{CAPEX}_\text{total}} \cdot 100\% ROI = CAPEX total Value/year − OPEX/year ⋅ 100% TCO 5 = CAPEX total + 5 ⋅ OPEX/year \text{TCO}_5 = \text{CAPEX}_\text{total} + 5 \cdot \text{OPEX/year} TCO 5 = CAPEX total + 5 ⋅ OPEX/year Isteʼmol bashorati — Gas Demand Forecast
Chiziqli model (OLS):
Q ( t ) = β 0 + β 1 t + ∑ k = 1 2 [ α k sin ( 2 π k t / 365 ) + γ k cos ( 2 π k t / 365 ) ] + ∑ j = 1 6 w j 1 dow = j + δ ⋅ HDD ( t ) + ε Q(t) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 t + \sum_{k=1}^{2}[\alpha_k \sin(2\pi k t/365) + \gamma_k \cos(2\pi k t/365)] + \sum_{j=1}^{6} w_j \mathbb{1}_{\text{dow}=j} + \delta \cdot \text{HDD}(t) + \varepsilon Q ( t ) = β 0 + β 1 t + k = 1 ∑ 2 [ α k sin ( 2 π k t /365 ) + γ k cos ( 2 π k t /365 )] + j = 1 ∑ 6 w j 1 dow = j + δ ⋅ HDD ( t ) + ε Trend + ikki garmonikali yillik mavsumiylik + hafta-kuni dummylari + isitish-darajalar-kun termi.
HDD:
HDD ( t ) = max ( 0 , 18 ° C − T ˉ ( t ) ) \text{HDD}(t) = \max(0, 18°C - \bar T(t)) HDD ( t ) = max ( 0 , 18° C − T ˉ ( t )) 95% ishonch intervali:
Q ^ ( t ) ± 1.96 ⋅ σ ^ ε ⋅ 1 + h ( t ) \hat Q(t) \pm 1.96 \cdot \hat\sigma_\varepsilon \cdot \sqrt{1 + h(t)} Q ^ ( t ) ± 1.96 ⋅ σ ^ ε ⋅ 1 + h ( t ) Backtest:
MAE = 1 N ∑ t ∣ Q ( t ) − Q ^ ( t ) ∣ , MAPE = 1 N ∑ t ∣ Q ( t ) − Q ^ ( t ) ∣ Q ( t ) ⋅ 100 % \text{MAE} = \frac{1}{N} \sum_t |Q(t) - \hat Q(t)|, \quad \text{MAPE} = \frac{1}{N} \sum_t \frac{|Q(t) - \hat Q(t)|}{Q(t)} \cdot 100\% MAE = N 1 t ∑ ∣ Q ( t ) − Q ^ ( t ) ∣ , MAPE = N 1 t ∑ Q ( t ) ∣ Q ( t ) − Q ^ ( t ) ∣ ⋅ 100% Coverage 95 % = 1 N ∑ t 1 Q ( t ) ∈ [ Q ^ t ± 1.96 σ ^ ] \text{Coverage}_{95\%} = \frac{1}{N} \sum_t \mathbb{1}_{Q(t) \in [\hat Q_t \pm 1.96\hat\sigma]} Coverage 95% = N 1 t ∑ 1 Q ( t ) ∈ [ Q ^ t ± 1.96 σ ^ ] Sogʻlom moslik: coverage ≈ 95%, MAPE < 15%.
Bosim anomaliyalari — Pressure Anomalies
Outage:
outage ( t ) = 1 P ( t ) = null ∨ P ( t ) = 0 \text{outage}(t) = \mathbb{1}_{P(t) = \text{null} \lor P(t) = 0} outage ( t ) = 1 P ( t ) = null ∨ P ( t ) = 0 Keskin tushish:
drop ( t ) = 1 P ( t − 1 ) − P ( t ) > 5 kPa/h \text{drop}(t) = \mathbb{1}_{P(t-1) - P(t) > 5 \text{ kPa/h}} drop ( t ) = 1 P ( t − 1 ) − P ( t ) > 5 kPa/h Baseline drift:
drift 30 d = P 5 ( last 30d ) − P 5 ( first 30d ) P 5 ( first 30d ) ⋅ 100 % \text{drift}_{30d} = \frac{P_5^{(\text{last 30d})} - P_5^{(\text{first 30d})}}{P_5^{(\text{first 30d})}} \cdot 100\% drift 30 d = P 5 ( first 30d ) P 5 ( last 30d ) − P 5 ( first 30d ) ⋅ 100% Tahlil qilingan davrda |drift| > 20% boʻlsa, baseline-drift insidenti koʻtariladi.
Beqarorlik (rolling):
instability ( t ) = σ P ( 24 h ) P ˉ ( 24 h ) \text{instability}(t) = \frac{\sigma_P^{(24h)}}{\bar P^{(24h)}} instability ( t ) = P ˉ ( 24 h ) σ P ( 24 h ) ≥ 6 soatlik oynada nisbat 0.3 dan oshsa, beqarorlik insidenti koʻtariladi.
Uzun seanslar — IQR aniqlash
Punkt boʻyicha chegara:
θ long = Q 3 + 1.5 ⋅ IQR , IQR = Q 3 − Q 1 \theta_\text{long} = Q_3 + 1.5 \cdot \text{IQR}, \quad \text{IQR} = Q_3 - Q_1 θ long = Q 3 + 1.5 ⋅ IQR , IQR = Q 3 − Q 1 Robust outlier detektori — polling-seans davomliklarining qiyshiq taqsimoti uchun z-scoredan yaxshiroq.
Severity bali:
S = 40 ⋅ long_frac + 30 ⋅ t ˉ anomaly θ long + 30 ⋅ n_incidents_critical S = 40 \cdot \text{long\_frac} + 30 \cdot \frac{\bar t_\text{anomaly}}{\theta_\text{long}} + 30 \cdot \text{n\_incidents\_critical} S = 40 ⋅ long_frac + 30 ⋅ θ long t ˉ anomaly + 30 ⋅ n_incidents_critical Uy energetikasi — Household Report
Taqsimot shabloni (xususiy uy):
Segment Ulush Isitish 60% Issiq suv taʼminoti 20% Ovqat pishirish 10% Boshqa 10%
Isolatsiyadan tejash:
Δ V insulation = V heating ⋅ 0.15 (tipik retrofit) \Delta V_\text{insulation} = V_\text{heating} \cdot 0.15 \text{ (tipik retrofit)} Δ V insulation = V heating ⋅ 0.15 (tipik retrofit) Murakkab foiz (tejamlar r stavkasida qoʻyiladi):
Reinvest T = Savings ⋅ ( 1 + r ) T − 1 r \text{Reinvest}_T = \text{Savings} \cdot \frac{(1 + r)^T - 1}{r} Reinvest T = Savings ⋅ r ( 1 + r ) T − 1 Severity tasnifi — yagona shkala
Diapazon Severity Rang Kontekst 0–9 OK yashil composite, top problem nodes 10–29 Low koʻk composite 30–49 Medium sariq composite 50–69 High toʻq sariq composite, top problem nodes warning 70–100 Critical qizil composite, top problem nodes critical
Top Problem Nodes 30 / 60 chegaralarini ishlatadi — yashil mintaqaning koʻproq qismi “normal” holat deb hisoblanadi.
Confidence ramkasi — Decarbonization va Metering Bypass
Confidence Shart High deep score ≥ 80, ≥ 6 oy maʼlumot bilan Medium deep score ≥ 50 yoki cheklangan maʼlumot tarixi Low past ball / fallback baholash
Dala tekshiruvi prioriteti — Metering Bypass
Shart Priority Yaqindagi physical hodisa (≤ 7 kun) P0 (override)Eski physical hodisa (> 7 kun) P1 score ≥ 70, confidence medium yoki high bilan P0 score ≥ 70, confidence low bilan P1 score ≥ 50 P1 score ≥ 30 P2 score < 30 P3
Konstantalar maʼlumotnomasi
Belgi Qiymat Manba Qaerda ishlatiladi EF CO2 \text{EF}_\text{CO2} EF CO2 1.96 kg/m³ IPCC AR6 Decarbonization, Emissions and Energy HHV \text{HHV} HHV 37.0 MJ/m³ tabiiy gaz uchun tipik (IEA) Emissions and Energy ρ CH4 \rho_\text{CH4} ρ CH4 0.68 kg/m³ standart sharoit Decarbonization GWP 100 \text{GWP}_{100} GWP 100 28 IPCC AR6, 100-yillik Decarbonization, Emissions and Energy GWP 20 \text{GWP}_{20} GWP 20 84 IPCC AR6, 20-yillik Decarbonization, Emissions and Energy Nolga yaqin oqim 0.5 m³/h empirik Metering Bypass Min nol-oqim runi 6 h empirik Metering Bypass Qotgan-bosim σ 0.1 kPa empirik Metering Bypass Gey-Lyussak uchun min ΔT 1.0 °C empirik Metering Bypass Tiklanish Q min 10 m³/h empirik Metering Bypass Tiklanish ΔP min 20 kPa empirik Metering Bypass Fizik P max 500 kPa fizik chegara Metering Bypass old filtri Q spike koʻpaytuvchisi 20× empirik Metering Bypass old filtri P-datchik-buzilgan qotish vaqti 168 h empirik Metering Bypass datchik holati HDD baza harorati 18 °C IPCC Gas Demand Forecast Default sizish ulushi 0.5% IEA flot oʻrtachasi Decarbonization fallback
Metodologiya manbalari: IPCC AR6 (WG I, 7-bob) — GWP va emissiya koeffitsiyentlari; OIML R 137-1 — gaz hisoblagichlarining aniqlik sinflari; ISO 5167 va AGA Report No. 3 — diferensial-bosimli oqimni hisoblash; EN 1776 — hisobga olish punktini loyihalash konvensiyalari; GHG Protocol Scope 1 — toʻgʻridan-toʻgʻri yoqish CO₂ hisobi.